Managing expectations

The battle to manage expectations has begun. In a recent interview Tom Watson MP, deputy chair of the Labour Party and campaign coordinator for both the local elections and the Mayoral contest in London thinks 350 seat gains is the upper limit for Labour’s expectations. Watson claims his figure is “a realistic, stretching challenge”, but local government polling experts, Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth suggest “Labour is on course to make upwards of 500 gains and take control of several additional councils”.

Watson understands why these numbers matter. Despite gaining 850 seats in last year’s local election results – no mean feat one year after posting our worst general election result in 80 years – the fact that this fell below a media expectation of a four figure gain, meant that the results of 5th May 2011 were written up as a Conservative victory.

These numbers are of course national predictions. What can Labour realistically expect to achieve in May in the South?

Firstly, 2012 is likely to see Labour build on last year’s success in standing more candidates and contesting more seats. In the east of England 79% of seats were contested compared to 60% in 2007; in the south east and south west, the figures are 66% (53%) and 51% (34%) respectively. In an interview before last year’s Labour Party conference, deputy leader Harriet Harman committed the party to contest 80% of seats this time round. Given that half as many seats are being elected in 2012 compared with 2011, this is achievable.

Secondly, Labour can and must win control of a number of local authorities. As the list below demonstrates, there are no more than councils in which Labour has a realistic opportunity to take control.

Thurrock +1
Norwich +2
Exeter +2
Harlow +3
Plymouth +4
Reading +4
Great Yarmouth +5
Southampton +6
Crawley +6
Cambridge +8

While one might assume that the eight gains required in Cambridge are out of reach this time around (a Labour seat from 1997-2005 but where we are now in third place), a failure to make one gain in Thurrock, two each in Norwich and Exeter and 3 three in Harlow would be a terrible blow to the party’s prospects for 2015. All ten of these councils house marginal seats that Labour must win in 2015. The stakes at play in these seats are high.

Finally, of the 63 local authorities in the south holding elections in May, eighteen have no Labour representation whatsoever. If Labour is able to achieve its target of contesting 80% of seats across the south, and if the mood of public dissatisfaction with coalition cuts is reflected in the ballot box, then new Labour Groups will be established from 6th May right across the political south. Labour councillors in Adur, Castle Point and Woking will be a sign of success.

Although the parties’ spin doctors will be doing their best to talk up their respective results, they may both end up on the losing side. As local elections are taking place on the same day as the London Mayoral rematch, our London-centric media will ensure that the political coverage on Friday 4th May is all about Ken. Or Boris. Or both. It seems unlikely it will be about whether Labour has 350 or 500 new councillors.

Stuart King is Editor of Southern Front