The battle lines are already being drawn for the next General Election. The reckless coalition government is doing all it can to stifle growth in the economy, whilst ludicrously maintaining that Britain is a “safe haven” because its bond rates are so low. It hasn’t occurred to George Osborne that the real reason for this is that he has choked off the recovery – a paltry 0.2% growth over the past 3 quarters.
The Tories at local level are in denial that their policies are strangling their communities. Savage cuts and a lack of building and investment means high rents, high wage demands, and overcrowding. The South is not an attractive location for businesses. People fear losing their jobs (or have lost them already), and face rising bills and falling income.
The recent economic news from both the US and the EU does not augur well for the UK economy, as George Osborne is relying on exports to them to bring growth. A double dip is more a probability and less a possibility with every passing day.
The recession has hit the young first. Their prospects are much worse than three years ago, with the trebling of tuition fees, abolition of the EMA, and youth unemployment over 20%. Job security and secure accommodation outside the parental home are becoming ever more distant dreams. And when they see no reward for hard work and playing by the rules, and no reward for engaging with the democratic process, they disengage. And when they feel they have nothing to lose, it gets dangerous.
It will take longer for the recession to hit the middle-aged and older people, but when it does, they will be severely affected. Middle-aged people losing their jobs are less employable, less adaptable, and less able to relocate to find new work. They risk repossession or bankruptcy if their income drops sufficiently low for a sufficiently long period of time. People on pensions can not hope to earn their way out of trouble if living costs rise and pension incomes fall.
The Tory vote is skewed towards people who haven’t felt the cuts bite yet, hence their vote has held up. The Lib Dem vote, on the other hand, was made up of sizeable numbers of younger voters and people who have been hit hard by the recession, hence their vote has collapsed.
The current situation, largely of the coalition’s making, gives us a number of messages that will resonate powerfully with the electorate, but to be sure of effecting change at the ballot box we have to make sure the message hits home. How do we do this in the South?
This is the $64,000 question. One which has answers you will all want to know about, including the Lib Dems and Tories who read this blog, so I’m not going into details on this public web site. But suffice to say it means more voter contact, with careful planning, and sufficient knowledge of the new campaign tools and techniques, and of your electorate.
The battle lines are not so much demographic or ideological: they are organisational. Any CLP whose activism has stayed above a critical level in the hard times of 2007, 2008 and 2009 can expect to win back seats, and win big. Because maintaining dialogue with the electorate is the key to it.
Labour’s recovery started in London and the North. This is hardly surprising – our resources are greatest in these areas, and this means a great deal of contact with the electorate. But in the South, we need to work smarter as well as harder. We need to train members up so their voter ID and analysis is as accurate as possible. We need to accurately assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of our local parties relative to our rivals.
Campaign techniques are changing more rapidly than at any time in history. What used to win elections in the mid-90s may not be enough now. But we had great results in places like Ipswich, and similar gains are possible with half the resources that they had.
While we did less well this year in the three Southern Regions than we did in the North, patterns emerge:
- a direct correlation between Labour strength in the South East and Lib Dem losses,
- the Tories picked up seats from minority parties and independents, offsetting their losses to Labour
- a direct correlation between Labour near misses in Tory battlefront seats and last minute Tory panics
- we won more seats in Eastern region where safe seats were left with skeleton crews while the main effort piled into the marginals. Any plans which involve concentrating on our safer seats should be buried.
Even where we have only a handful of activists, we should be getting our message out there. The real battle line is between these frontier areas, and the areas beyond them where we might never recover. We should focus our attention on places like Winchester, Aldershot, Basingstoke and Guildford where we have either started to take back seats or are just about to take them back, and, in so doing, be more confident about taking our parliamentary seats back in places like Reading, Portsmouth, and Swindon.
The coalition policies are so disastrous that we’re seeing a rapid return to the early 1980’s. There have been so many policy failures and U-turns in the last 12 months, they blur together so that the electorate will forget some of them and give the coalition an easy ride, unless we remind them and keep setting the record straight. And to have maximum impact in doing this, we need to get organised.
Andy McCormick is Chair of Basingstoke CLP
To continue this debate on the CFL Forum: planning for victory, winning by numbers, knowing your electorate…contact Andrew by email at cllr.andrew.mccormick@basingstoke.gov.uk