AV would have changed outcome in 6 South East seats

Six of the South East's MPs would not have been elected in last year's election if the poll had been run under an AV electoral system, according to new research published today.

The Liberal Democrats would have been the net beneficiaries, retaining Oxford West & Abingdon (which was lost to the Conservatives), as well as picking up Oxford East and Watford from Labour, and St Albans and Reading East from the Conservatives. Labour's loss of Andrew Smith in Oxford East would have been offset by the retention of Hove on the East Sussex coast. Southern Front hopes that each campaign will provide an article articulating the reasons why Labour members and voters in the South should support their campaign in May's referendum.

What next for an elected Mayor in Torbay?

Last Autumn Torbay Labour Party wrote to the Secretary of State for Local Government, Eric Pickles, urging him to make provision for an early referendum on the system of local government in Torbay.

The current legislation only allows for a referendum to be held in July 2015 – after the Council and Mayoral elections in May of that year. This situation is clearly nonsense. That would mean a third elected Mayor serving until 2019, despite the possibility of a choice by Torbay to end the system!

We urged Mr. Pickles to permit a referendum in 2014, allowing the people of Torbay the choice to decide if it is a system they wish to continue with. By then Torbay would have experienced this system for the best part of a decade, long enough to know if it works for the Bay or not. If the decision was to change back to a Leader and Cabinet or Committee system, then we would have at least six months to plan for the change.

Torbay Labour Party wrote to all 36 of the Bay’s councillors urging a cross-party lobby to demonstrate unanimity. The then Tory leader rubbished the idea as did the current Mayor.

Last week, at a full Council meeting, it was agreed overwhelmingly to write to Mr. Pickles requesting the opportunity for the early referendum. And to demonstrate cross party suport, any of the Mayoral Candidates who agree we should consult again will be invited to sign the letter.

We welcome this move.

The Secretary of State is leading the Localism Bill, a cornerstone of the Tory-led coalition’s policy. If the localism philosophy is truly enshrined at the heart of government it is hard to see how he can deny Torbay the chance to make a decision which is local to the area.

So the writing may very well be on the wall for the mayoral model in Torbay.
We believe that it is undemocratic, too centralised, excludes the vast majority of elected councillors and more expensive.

Yes Torbay has to move forward. Yes we need economic regeneration. The high levels of child poverty (24% of our children live in poverty), high unemployment, low wages and decaying infrastructure are all signs of that need.

But too many key decisions are taken by the Mayor and Cabinet without proper regard to the opinions of local councillors and more importantly the wider community.

Delays to regeneration schemes are often caused due to the ping-pong of decisions backward and forward between the Cabinet, Overview and Scrutiny Board and full council.

In recent weeks, three major schemes have been further delayed as a result of call-ins by local councillors, resulting in further costly meetings and delays to the regeneration of the three towns.

So what can happen in the mean time before a 2014 referendum?

Patrick Canavan, Labour’s Prospective Mayoral candidate, has made it clear he will devolve power back to councillors. If they are allowed to be included from the early stages the regular call-ins that happen today can be a thing of the past.

Adopting an inclusive approach that encourages councillors, business groups and the community to participate in shaping the future will mean that Torbay can move forward, but from a position of collective engagement. This would make plans for Torbay those of the people and not those of a single Mayor’s vision which has failed spectacularly in the past five and a half years.

Even if in 2014 the next Mayor of Torbay is seen as someone who has made the system work and united the divided, we cannot risk a future Mayor reverting back to the model we have experienced since 2005.

Once elected, a Mayor is there for the full term. A council leader can be removed at any time if they fail to carry the support of the council. So when we do get the chance to vote in a referendum, I can guarantee Torbay Labour Party will be fighting for that change.

Darren Cowell is Chair of Torbay Labour Party

A Gamble for Growth? We in the South-West should keep our fingers crossed and hope.

Just over a week ago I wrote how I would pray for George Osborne to produce a budget of growth for the South West – specifically for those areas deepest in the West Country that have been identified as being the hardest hit from public spending cuts, such as Plymouth.

The headline matter is that the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded its growth forecasts from 2.1% to 1.7% this year. This isn't good news for our region, with it having one of the smallest economies in any of the nine English regions (worth £95.3bn in 2009) and indeed the British Chamber of Commerce considers the growth figures to be too ambitious still.

Government policy is hedged on private sector employment picking up the unemployment figures from public sector job cuts. In areas such as Plymouth – with the three largest employers being the NHS, the university and the Defence sector – this is crucial to families right across that city and indeed carries similar implications for the whole region. Whilst we wait to see if this Governments bet is correct we should be fighting for these areas to get the most efficient resource and support for private sector growth – such as campaigning for Plymouth to become one of the today announced Enterprise Zones – at the same time as continuing the campaign to save our public sector.

Tackling unemployment is particular important to young people in the South West, with the region facing youth unemployment rates (for 16-24 year olds) that are at their highest for over 24 years. The South West must counteract the so called 'South West Brain Drain' and retain young graduates, as well as supporting non-graduates, to ease transition into employment. Whilst the budget today announced increased apprenticeships and work experience places, Nick Pearce in the FT rightly commented that neither of these programmes is as generously funded as Labour's Future Jobs Fund, which was scrapped by the current Government.

However, there were some positive announcements for people in the South West today, such as Government subsidy for South West water rates (which are the highest in the country). We should wait for the detail to see how this will be delivered - and to what extent, however, before we get too excited and start filling up the inflatable swimming pool. One can hope the policy delivers on this serious problem, which causes significant financial distress to many in the South West. One should also recognise the extensive work undertaken on this issue by Linda Gilroy, the former MP for Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, without whom it is unlikely that this measure would have appeared in today’s budget.

The reduction in Fuel Duty is also good news for many in the region – both in urban and rural areas with limited or non-existent public transport and long travel distances – but the 1p decrease should be viewed in the context of the 3p VAT rise (which isn't being altered) and the possibility of significant fluctuations in global oil prices, which the 1p decrease won't prevent.

But what does this mean to people living their daily lives in Bristol, or Exeter or Truro? One has to remember that people are being bombarded from every angle, with the IFS accusing the treasury of giving a little with one hand and taking a lot with many hands. With 3.3m people in the South West of working age personal taxation will play a crucial element, with reports concluding average households suffering a £600 decrease in available income each year. The only positive being the £45 per year extra from the increase in personal allowance, which doesn't come in for another 12 months anyway.

I do have to question the rationale behind George Osborne's budget priorities. It seems that the focus is on private sector growth – which isn't a bad thing in itself – but at the behest of ordinary people and the public sector. This is clearly ideological, but just not admitted by the Government. Public sector pension increases, the VAT increase, National Insurance increase for employees, public sector funding cuts and more besides seems almost nonsensical against policies such as the increase in the maximum claim for business Entrepreneurs' Relief, the temporary status for higher rate tax payers (on incomes over £150, 000) and in the 2% (and not the reported 1%) decrease in Corporation Tax.

It will take a number of days to unpick the detail of today’s budget, and the months and years ahead to verify its impact. Budgets are an example of political theatre at its best - or worst. But they matter: the take-home message today is the continuation of the Government’s dangerous gamble that the private sector can pick up the pieces of billions in public sector cuts, imposed too deep and too fast, by this Conservative-led Government. I hope the gamble for growth pays off, because if it doesn't we will all feel the effects.

Darren Jones is the founding Chair of Unity South West and tweets at @darrenpjones

Unity South West regional forum

This Saturday members of the Labour and Co-operative parties, of various Trade Unions, of the Youth Parliament, of grass roots campaigns such as the anti-cuts alliance and more besides came together in a hotel meeting room to discuss their shared values. They came together to recognise that in the South West – with the current Conservative/Liberal Democrat dominance – we can only achieve the biggest impact in our campaigns if we organise together, in unity.

The meeting, organised by the campaign I started, Unity South West, was the first of a series of meetings to be organised across the region in the coming year. The purpose of the meetings are to bring like minded activists from across the left together in one room, to meet new people, to build new contacts and to realise through interactive group discussion that we have more in common than not. That whilst we might have differences in approach to campaigning or policy, that the target should be the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, not ourselves. That whilst we may continue to act autonomously, that we should pledge to at least communicate with each other to see where we can co-ordinate and support.

Whilst Unity South West is already working closely with party, union and campaign regional leadership, the meetings purposely invite grassroots members from the doorstep and the branch so that the outcomes of their discussion around our values feed into the Declaration of Unity that Unity South West is working towards achieving in 2012. A declaration that will be built from the membership, not from strategic leadership, and a declaration that will hopefully, therefore, engage our activists across the whole region.

But what is the Declaration of Unity? The declaration is really quite simple, it is a pledge to communicate across organisation and campaign frameworks to keep up-to-date with our fellow activists and to see where we can co-ordinate and organise in unity so that we create the biggest impact in our region with the resources available. It will also portray our shared values, and recognise at its core, that together we can achieve more than we can achieve alone.

The Bristol meeting was kicked off by the Shadow Minister for Europe, Wayne David MP, who spoke to our delegates about the importance of the EU in the SW and the challenges we face as to build towards trying to elect a Labour MEP again in our region in 2014. Delegates were also furnished with freshly baked pastry (which I baked before setting up the meeting!), fresh coffee and fruit whilst being armed with flip chart paper and coloured pens.

The two hours of discussion, debate and feedback highlighted our differences and our diversity but recognised – most importantly – our core similarities. We recognised the challenges the labour movement in the South West face but the meeting felt as if real momentum is available as we work together as a regional movement.

Unity South West will continue to organise regional meetings, to highlight the successes of our regional movement, to welcome high profile guest speakers to the South West and to ensure that the positive outcomes of our work continue through to a more communicative, cohesive and united regional movement.

For more information on the Unity South West campaign, including to read what Ed Miliband MP thinks of the campaign, visit our website at www.unitysouthwest.co.uk where you can also read our regional magazine, UNITY, online for free. For those inclined to do so you can also find us on facebook and on twitter @unitysouthwest

Darren Jones is the founding Chair of Unity South West and tweets at @darrenpjones

5 May: Let’s achieve more together

Twelve months ago every Labour activist in the country was engaged in the General Election campaign – in every constituency across the country Labour activists were banging on doors, making phone calls and delivering leaflets – it was a total campaign. Twelve months on and the Coalition’s first test at the ballot box will not be fought in every constituency nationwide – a few will lead the way.

A vanguard of parties in England and parties across Scotland and Wales will be flying the Labour flag on 5 May. Sure, there’s a referendum on 5 May if that floats but your boat, but there aren’t contested elections nationwide, but that’s no reason for not campaigning.

For some people this will mean a well-earned year off from campaigning. For others it means campaigning for votes without the air support of a national push. But there is another group – Labour activists who will be campaigning on unfamiliar turf – I am speaking of the mobile campaigners – those who are supporting campaigns outside their local areas – helping Labour parties contesting elections to win more votes.

Plymouth Labour http://www.facebook.com/PlymouthLabour is like dozens of other parties across the country who will be fighting the Coalition parties in close electoral races. We have a dedicated and growing local team doing superb work for the party and the city, but we could do so much more with some extra help. That’s why I am writing this article to ask those Labour campaigners without elections on 5 May to lend a hand to Plymouth and parties across the UK who do have elections in six weeks time.

How can you help?

Here’s my challenge - there are four ways to help Labour in the elections and they are all quite simple:

1. Make a phone call – the virtual phone bank features every constituency where there are elections. Plymouth Moor View and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport would appreciate every extra call but so too would other CLPs. It is remarkably easy to use and really does make a difference come polling day in getting out the vote.

2. Twin your party – the next time your party meets resolve to twin yourself to a Labour Party fighting an election on 5 May. Whether it is a party in Scotland or Wales or one in England like Plymouth, ask yourself how can you help? What can you do to help Labour activists just like yourself? Make their election your election.

3. Donate – the Tories didn’t lose their financial advantage upon entering Downing Street. As a general rule Tory associations have more money than Constituency Labour Parties, and every penny you can donate – and in particular to local parties – goes a very long way.

4. Volunteer - Parties across the country need experienced volunteers to help deliver leaflets, bang on doors, make phone calls and set up committee rooms, check leaflet copy, mobilize volunteers and, of course, get out the vote. If you don’t have elections on 5 May, can you take that day off and travel to somewhere that does? You really can make a difference.

Do you know the feeling when you open a letter during an election to find a cheque or a letter of support? What a boost it gives activists to know there are people out there willing them on. I know too what it means as a candidate to see new helpers you weren’t expecting at canvass sessions helping you achieve more than you would have otherwise.

There are phone banks and committee rooms in every major city in the country that twelve months ago were buzzing with activity may be idle this year; volunteers stood down due to the absence of elections in their local area. The strength of the Labour movement is surely in helping the broader party in times of need. Whether it is Plymouth, Leicester South, Edinburgh or Cardiff let’s make every election local and help.

Let’s also send a message to the Tories, Lib Dems, SNP and BNP that Labour isn’t taking this election off. We’re not half-mobilising, we’re active, focused and organized and where we don’t have elections we will still be fighting, standing alongside those who are standing for election, supporting Labour candidates across the country.

I cannot speak for the contests outside my local party but the electoral fights in Plymouth are so close that a handful of extra volunteers on polling day may well make all the difference between Labour and the Tories winning – it really is that close. Let’s activate every party in towns and cities where there are no elections and focus our collective energies into winning seats across the land. And let’s also be clear that this is not some enthusiastic folly. Labour’s recent by-election victory in Cornwall http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-12189185 where Labour came from sixth to win shows where we focus and fight we can win.

Let’s pull together and prove yet again that as a Labour movement we really can achieve more together than we can alone.

Luke Pollard was Labour’s candidate in South West Devon at the 2010 General Election. He lives in Plymouth and volunteers with the Plymouth Labour Party.

Political state of the South West

It’s now been 10 months since the General Election and for the first time a South West firm have decided to produce a monthly qualitative poll of voter responses in the South West. This is the first time a dedicated regional poll is being produced on a running basis and will prove vital for Labour South West campaigners – especially for those that can’t afford private polling data!

Below I’ve put together some graphs as a quick comparison of the 2010 General Election with data sets established in March 2011 highlighting some significant challenges but some potentially important opportunities for Labour South West.

Because our region is so dominated with Conservative / Liberal Democrat politics we have to be strategically driven as a Labour movement in the South West – directing our resources and efforts to those areas that matter the most in terms of the Labour vote. It is true to say that there aren’t ‘no go’ areas for Labour in the South West but as we try to reestablish ourselves in the region with limited resources we must accept the reality of our challenge.

One reason I started the UNITY SOUTH WEST campaign was because I recognised the need to build a cohesive and communicative South West labour movement because only together can we tackle the Conservative hold in this region. The below information shows this reasoning and shows comparisons based on age, location and sex and highlights some potential strategic priorities for Labour in the South West.

Age

When asked, “If there was a General Election tomorrow” the percentage based on age shows the challenge for Labour in the South West. The target area for Labour South West is 25-44 year olds, who provide the only peak area for Labour in the region.



However, if one compares this to Labour South West in the 2010 General Election the above message is a positive one – the clear significance being the momentous decline in Liberal Democrat support across all age groups.

There should, however, be a note of caution. Whilst one should understand that this snapshot of data is only that, a clear difference is visible between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party responses for 18-24 year olds.

Whilst Labour support has increased by 13% in this age group the Conservative Party has seen a 15% increase – this should be noted when considering targeting strategies for young voters – why are 18-24 years olds in the South West finding a home with the Conservative Party and not Labour?

Further, it can be seen that across the South West the Conservative Party vote is either staying strong or increasing. This questions political strategy with some commentators mooting the importance of tackling the Conservative base – this data shows it is the Liberal Democrats that should be targeted to join the Labour movement in the region.



This graph displays the significance of gaining the Liberal Democrat swing vote in the South West – with the cumulative total of 25-54 being a key area (as compared against Labour gains in these groups). Whilst the other parties make no significant changes it should be noted that the Conservative vote fails to decrease in any age group and indeed increases significantly in the 18-24 and 75+ range.

Location

The South West has always been difficult geographically for the Labour Party with the region being the region with the highest degree of agricultural land in the country and only a handful of urban hubs. However, the data shows that our share of the vote has increased across the whole of the South West since the 2010 General Election with the biggest gain being in Plymouth.

A point of interest is the relative consistency of the Labour vote in Bristol which only changes marginally, whilst Cornwall shows a very promising Liberal Democrat drop to Labour (and no Conservative) gain.



The following graphs show the steady Conservative vote in the South West but the significant decrease in Liberal Democrat support, especially in Plymouth and Cornwall.






Sex

Another area of interest is the relationship of voting intention between men and women. This recent data has shown a more significant drop in Liberal Democrat support amongst male respondents compared to female ones, with more women going to Conservative or Green parties than Labour (where the majority disaffected Liberal Democrat men went).





Conclusion

This brief summary of quantitative polling data shows some interesting changes in voter intention since the General Election in the South West.

It should be remembered that the data is a snapshot in time that will of course change frequently, however the conclusions that can be drawn from this data is that strategic targeting of 25-44 year old, previously Liberal Democrat men in Cornwall and Devon (including Plymouth) may reap some reward for Labour South West as we try to engage floating voters in the region and bring them into our movement.

Raw Data Source: Marketing Means South West Poll (March 2011)

Darren Jones was Labour's parliamentary candidate in Torridge & West Devon in 2010. He blogs at http://www.theadvocatesocialist.wordpress.com/

How the East was lost - and how to win again (Part II)

Stuart King reports from the launch of How the East was lost...and how to win again, and finds answers to some but not all of the challenges Labour faces in the region.

The launch yesterday of Bob Blizzard and Lewis Baston’s research paper, How the East was lost…and how to win again was important not for the fact that the meeting in the House of Commons was packed, but because of the presence of Harriet Harman and Ed Balls. In attending, the deputy leader and the Eastern region election coordinator demonstrated that the Labour high command understands that its southern problem has an eastern aspect to it.

While Ed Balls, a politician with longstanding links to and a deep understanding of the region, was the more powerful and authoritative speaker of the two, it was Harriet’s clear determination that Labour should stand candidates in as many council seats as possible in the east that was the more promising of the two speeches delivered.

It is encouraging to see that the leadership has recognised the disastrous missed opportunity May’s elections could be for Labour if we don’t ensure that there is a Labour candidate on each ballot offering an alternative to the candidates of the two coalition parties. But simply saying we want a Labour candidate on every ballot won’t make it happen. Local Labour parties needs pressure and support and time is running out with fewer than twenty days remaining to find the missing candidates and, more challengingly, the necessary nominating papers.

Harriet’s plea for candidates was urgent with good reason. Four years ago when these seats were last elected, Labour in the East failed to stand a candidates in nearly 350 seats – more than a third of the total up for election. Unless you have managed the process of securing candidate nominations for local elections it is very easy to underestimate the time and resource required.

The report’s analysis was delivered in two parts – Lewis Baston was the numbers man, setting out in all too depressing detail the scale of the defeat Labour in the region experienced last year (for the first time since 1938 there isn’t a Labour MP in East Anglia); Bob Blizzard, surely someone any CLP would delight in having as their local MP, was the voice from the ground: reliving the campaign and the relaying the responses from the doorsteps of Lowestoft.

Much of the analysis presented seemed to me to be relevant across the entire political south and not exclusively an eastern problem. But two things did stand out: the complaint about the absence of senior Labour figures from the East in the last Labour Government: only Charles Clarke from the region made it into the Cabinet; and the fact that the region has only three cities with one than one MP – Norwich, Luton and Southend. Labour’s inability to put forward policies that were appealing to the market towns of the east and south cost us dear in 2010.

One very important but understandably uncomfortable issue, although tackled in the report, was entirely absent from last night’s discussion: the unpopularity of Gordon Brown. The report makes it clear that Gordon’s leadership was an issue for voters:

“It gives the authors no pleasure to report that Gordon Brown’s leadership was unpopular with people who might otherwise have voted Labour in Eastern England…. it is clear that Gordon failed to communicate with the electors in Eastern England – they did not feel inspired by his leadership or sense that he was ‘on their side’ or understood their concerns”

Despite this no one tackled the subject head on last night. It is not disloyal to Gordon or the party to recognise that a leader’s personal qualities and ability to empathise with voters is just as important as policies in the eyes of voters, especially in the east and south. And yet, as last night’s meeting demonstrated, even a year on we still find it difficult to face up to some uncomfortable truths.

But it would be wrong to leave the impression that yesterday’s meeting was a missed opportunity – far from it. It was great to see so many activists, councillors and candidates focusing on the second half of the Baston/Blizzard report – how to win again. The fact that the authors have had top level meetings with the leader, deputy leader, general secretary and general election coordinator shows that the party’s leadership is focusing on that task, too.

Stuart King is editor of Southern Front

Winning locally in the East

Ahead of tonight's meeting in the House of Commons, Stuart King looks at Labour's prospects in May's council elections in the East of England

There are probably fewer than a dozen town halls in the south that Labour has a realistic chance of taking control of in May’s elections, four of which are in the East of England.

A handful of seats gained in Ipswich (+2), Thurrock (+3) and Norwich (+4) are likely to see these authorities feature in the post-election list of councils with newly elected Labour administrations. Slightly more is expected of Labour in Waveney, which on a very good night for Labour could also go red.

The results in all four of these local authorities will be important for Labour in the East of England not only because of the opportunity they present for Labour to take control of these councils, but because they are home to five marginal parliamentary seats, all lost by Labour in 2010.

Ipswich looks the most likely of the authorities to elect a Labour administration. The two gains Labour requires are likely to be realised through a Labour victory in two of the three Lib Dem wards going to the polls in May. Labour gained a seat in one of these wards in 2010 and is a close second place in the other. There are at least three Conservative held seats that Labour should fancy its chances of winning, which as well as delivering a less slender council majority, would also suggest that Labour was well placed to win back the parliamentary seat lost to the Conservatives when Chris Mole was defeated last year.

Thurrock is currently run as a minority Labour administration, and with only three gains required to win outright control, Labour leader Councillor John Kent and his group must be confident of securing a working majority. The three seats necessary look well within Labour’s grasp and, with a Labour victory likely to arrive on the back of the defeat of Conservative councillors, Labour will consider themselves well placed to regain this ultra marginal parliamentary seat at the next general election. The icing on the cake will surely be the defeat by Labour of Councillor Emma Colgate. Elected in 2007 as a BNP councillor, Colegate stood for the BNP in the Thurrock parliamentary seat in 2010 but later quit the fascist party, and now sits as an independent councillor on the authority.

In Norwich, a four seat pick up for Labour would see the party return to overall control in the city for the first time since 2002. On face value, one ought to consider Labour in pole position to achieve this. However, with only eight non Labour seats up for election in May, Labour’s task is not inconsiderable. Two gains at the expense of the Conservatives seem highly likely given Labour won both these wards when they were last contested in 2010. However, in the two Liberal Democrat held wards Labour looks much less competitive, with the Greens and Conservative possibly better placed to benefit from the slump in Lib Dem support.

Norwich is one of the few local authorities in England where the Greens are a sizeable presence, forming the official opposition with fourteen of the authority’s 39 councillors. Four of their seats are up for election in May, but of them only Mancroft (& possibly Town) ward looks vulnerable to a Labour upset. How the green vote holds up as voters look to punish the coalition parties in May will be interesting, in particular given the took 15% of the vote in marginal Norwich South last year.

A Labour controlled Waveney council looks more likely in 2012 than 2011. With ten seats required to see Labour take back the council, but with only 12 non Labour seats up in May, Labour needs an almost clean sweep of the board on 5th May. That seems unlikely this time around, especially with six strongly Conservative seats amongst the number being contested. However, Labour is still competitive in a number of the other Conservative seats being contested, and looks almost certain to take the sole Liberal Democrat seat up for grabs on election day.

Elsewhere in the East of England, there will be a number of council elections taking place that could prove to be a barometer for Labour. Labour’s victory in last year’s council by election in Coleridge ward saw Cambridge City Council become a Conservative free zone. However, the council is still dominated by the Coalition’s junior partners, with the Liberal democrats holding 29 of the authority’s 42 seats. In a parliamentary seat won (and retained) by the Liberal Democrats on the back of a large student vote, it will be interesting to see how well Labour can capitalise on voter disgust at the Lib Dems. However, with only 14 seats up for election in May, and Labour starting on a base of 10 seats, a change in control isn’t possible this time round.

From 1995 to 2003, Castle Point Borough Council was Labour controlled. Now, following last year’s local elections, there isn’t a single Labour councillor on the authority. The sole opposition group on this Conservative controlled council is the Canvey Island Independent Party and Labour finished in a distant third place in every one of the 14 council seats contested in 2010. Castle Point is an interesting council in that when either Labour or Conservative national fortunes are waning, they do especially badly in Castle Point. Given Labour held the parliamentary seat between 1997 and 2001, Labour strategists would be wrong to ignore what is happening in Castle Point. The election of Labour councillors once again would be a signal that the electorate in this typical Essex Man constituency might once again be willing to vote Labour.

Aside from Castle Point, there are fourteen other local authorities in the East of England that do not currently have even a single elected Labour councillor. That’s a significant number, representing as it does a population of almost 1.75 million voters. The headlines will be dominated by the results in Ipswich, Norwich and Thurrock; but Labour should be equally concerned by the results in places like Castle Point, Chelmsford and Forest Heath.

UPDATE: As Edward Carlsson Browne has helpfully pointed out, Waveney Council has moved to whole council elections from 2011, so our prospects of taking control of the council are much better given all the seats are up for election.


Stuart King is editor of Southern Front

Stand for Labour

Labour must contest every ward in 2011 say Councillor Keith Dibble, Leader of Rushmoor Labour Group

“I am Leader of an incredibly hardworking Labour Group of six councillors, up against 30 Tories and six Lib Dems. Yet we are one of the largest Labour Groups in southern England.

There are 74 Unitary, County, Borough and District councils in southern England and today 34 of those authorities are without any Labour councillors, and only one on another nine, including the major counties Hampshire and Surrey.

That is why this years local elections are so important for Labour.

Labour should fight for every vote in every seat. There should be no no-go areas; Labour must have a voice in every area”.

Councillor Keith Dibble, Leader of Rushmoor Labour Group (Aldershot and Farnborough in Hampshire)

Stand for Labour

We are very pleased that NEC member, Luke Akehurst, has taken up an issue close to our hearts here at Southern Front in his regular column for Progress: ensuring Labour stands as many candidates as possible in May's local elections. As we wrote last week, this is no mean feat, with nearly 5,000 candidates required here in the south alone.

As well as drawing on our research on this issue, Luke also flags up a recent and similar article by John Spellar MP, someone who has for years been concerned with ensuring the health of Labour locally is maintained and improved. Luke goes on to take the debate from the political to the practical, and sets out a number of ways in which individual Labour members can play their part.

One remedy we have been mulling over concerns the difficulty Labour has in some parts of the south in finding sufficient candidates willing to stand. It is perfectly legal for an individual to stand as a candidate in more than one seat on the same authority, so long as they receive sufficient valid nominations. Given we are often talking about finding paper candidates, there isn't really a risk of a candidate being elected to two or more different seats; but we would, at a stroke, make it that much easier for local parties to field full or larger slates of candidates. Worth considering, we think.

How the East was lost - and how to win again

Correction: Lewis Baston will be speaking at an event in parliament next Monday. Details here.

Ahead of next Monday's meeting in the House of Commons, Lewis Baston writes about Labour's challenge to win again in the east of England

If there is anything worse than Southern Discomfort, Bob Blizzard – the hard-working and decent MP for Waveney who lost his seat narrowly in 2010 – and I felt, it was Eastern Misery. Writing our report How the East was Lost – and how to win again involved an unflinching look at some uncomfortable truths.

The East of England is Labour’s disaster area even within the barren territory of the south of England. In the South East Labour has at least managed a small swing of 1.5 per cent in its favour since 1992 and – from a lamentable base – doubled its number of seats (Southampton Test and Slough joining the 1992 seats of Southampton Itchen and Oxford East). In the South West we were still slightly ahead of where we stood in 1992 (a 0.4 per cent swing) and held even on seats (compared to 1992, gaining Exeter and losing Kingswood).

In Eastern England by contrast we suffered a 0.7 per cent swing against us compared to 1992, losing all four seats we won then (Cambridge, Ipswich, Norwich South, Thurrock) although picking up the two seats in Luton. For the first time since the 1920s, Labour has lost the mantle of being the largest non-Conservative party among the East’s MPs. For the first time since 1938, Labour is without a single MP in the East Anglia part of the region.

The temptation to be fatalistic about Labour’s prospects in the East - writing it off as a perennially Tory region, or thinking of it as a ‘nice to have’ sideshow from the battle to win the next election – must be fiercely resisted. The East has not always been as Conservative as it is now, and the evidence of 1997 when (after London) it produced the second-highest swing to Labour of any region, should show that when we get the politics right voters in the East are prepared to trust Labour. We cannot afford for the region to become our equivalent of the Tory wilderness in Scotland, particularly as its population growth means that it will send an increasing proportion of MPs to the House of Commons; since 1974 its delegation has increased from 45 seats to 58.

Even more importantly, it may surprise many people – it certainly surprised me when I worked it out – to learn that the East of England has more of the marginal seats Labour needs to gain a working majority in 2015 than any other region bar the North West. The East is therefore a crucial battleground and deserves some serious thought and some serious political campaigning from Labour.

To understand the politics of the Eastern region, one has to realise that it is not a cohesive ‘region’ at all. Some regions, such as Yorkshire & The Humber and the North East, have a sense of identity of their own, and others have a distinct regional capital (West Midlands and more arguably North West and East Midlands). The southern regions, including East, lack these features and Labour’s culture has to adjust to this fact. It is no use talking in terms of ‘unemployment in the Eastern region rose x per cent’ - that is Whitehall jargon. Eastern is really three sub-regions. One is East Anglia, based on Norfolk, Suffolk, northern Essex and eastern Cambridgeshire. One is south Essex, and the other is the northern Home Counties (Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and western Cambridgeshire). There is relatively little that Watford, Southend and Great Yarmouth have in common. To regain our credibility we need to be authentic, local and talking about relevant things in each of the three areas. For instance, housing is a key issue close in to London and in the New Towns, while inadequate transport infrastructure (in normal language, roads and railways) is a problem in East Anglia.

The Eastern region as a whole has lacked the usual well-springs of Labour support, be they traditional industry, large cities (there are no cities with more than two constituencies, and only three of those – Norwich, Luton and Southend), ethnic diversity or the liberal professions. In terms of political profile and policy mix, it seems to fall between New Labour, traditional Labour and any other identity the party has developed (the New Labour tide ebbed faster in the East than elsewhere after 1997). East Anglia in particular has a strong rural element to its identity and in a political environment where the Conservatives have taken ownership of the ‘countryside’ this is difficult for us not just in rural seats but in East Anglian towns.

There is a common-sense understanding of ‘fairness’ which many swing voters in the East seem to have, with which Labour seemed to lose touch the longer we were in government. When we do try to address it, we tend to talk in jargon or well-worn soundbites about ‘hard working families who play by the rules’. ‘Fairness’ involves the state giving something back, in terms of services, benefits and opportunities, to ordinary people who pay in to the system. There is a keen sense that the selfish abuse of systems that should work for the common good – be they benefits, MP expenses, criminal justice, the immigration system, or banking - is wrong, and that Labour were too tolerant of it. People know that we have caring values, but they want to be reassured that those values don’t mean that Labour are pushovers for anyone with a semi-plausible case for a hand-out.

In the East Labour needs to regain ‘tough-minded’ electors who switched directly to the Tories – there are simply not enough disaffected Lib Dems out there to gain the seats we need. In four of our key targets in the region, an overall majority of the vote was cast for the Conservatives or to their right. There seem to be fewer cultural barriers in the East to voting Tory than exist in stronger Labour regions in the north and Scotland, fewer people who feel, as one of our interviewees put it to Bob and me, that ‘the worst Labour government is better than the best Tory government’.

Labour in the East needs not so much an overhaul as a reinvention. We need to refresh our organisation and make it welcoming and relevant to new members. Most people join a political party because they want to talk about politics and meet like-minded new friends, and accomplish something. They are understandably baffled and put off when a party meeting revolves around obscure procedural navel-gazing. New members have been flooding in since the election, but they will flood out again unless the party changes. We need to re-establish our presence in local councils – there are only nine councils in the entire region where we have more than 10 councillors, and 16 where we are completely shut out. We need to penetrate more into the region – east of the A1 we have no MPs and only one council (Stevenage). We need a policy direction that appeals to electors in the East. We also need to have candidates in place, and spokespeople for Labour in the sub-regions where we don’t have any MPs – East Anglia and south Essex.

It may be a bit early to think about, but Labour should set about nailing down safe seats in the different parts of the Eastern region. One of our problems has been a lack of a secure base – there has been no seat in the region we have not lost at some point in the past 20 years. Safe seats allow MPs to build senior political careers, and having MPs from a region in prominent positions means that people do not feel the party is alien to their area (as with the Tories in government in Scotland and Wales). Past Labour leaders have represented seats in Yorkshire, Scotland, the North East, Scotland, Wales, Wales, Wales, the th West, Yorkshire… one has to go back to Attlee before even a London MP has led the Labour Party. It should be thinkable that a Labour Prime Minister should represent a seat in the East or South.

Lewis Baston is a political analyst and writer. He blogs at http://www.lewisbaston.co.uk/ You can download his report co-written with former Waveney MP, Bob Blizzard here.

Progress campaign dates in the South

Those good people at Progress are planning a series of campaign days in Southern seats where it is important Labour makes gains to ensure we re-win government at the earliest opportunity and regain a national share of the vote. We have held two so far - in Gillingham and Hemel Hempstead - and have days planned in Brighton, Corby, Guildford and Aldershot.

It is important that Labour is campaigning in these vital southern seats and doesn 't forget those seats that Labour MPs no longer pass on their way back to their constituencies.

Please join Progress at the campaign days we have planned:


Progress campaigning in Brighton
19 Mar 2011 11:00 to 15:00

Join Progress in campaigning in vital marginal wards in Brighton. We are meeting at 11am at Brighton station. If you're joining us from London please take either:

* The 0957 from London Bridge, or
* The 1006 from Victoria.

Just turn up on the day if you want to join us and help make Brighton Labour.

If you would like to attend, please register online at http://brightoncampaigning.eventbrite.com/ to register online.


Progress campaigning in Corby
02 Apr 2011 11:00 to 15:00

Join Progress in campaigning in vital marginal wards in Corby.

We are meeting at 11am at Corby station. If you're joining us from London please take the 1000 from St Pancras.

Just turn up on the day if you want to join us and help Labour in Corby.

If you would like to attend, please register online at http://corbycampaigning.eventbrite.com/


Campaigning in Guildford and Aldershot
16 Apr 2011 11:00 to 15:00

Join Progress in campaigning in vital marginal wards in Guildford and Aldershot, as part of their Third Place First campaign.

We are meeting at 11am at Guildford station. If you're joining us from London please take the 1015 from Waterloo.

Just turn up on the day if you want to join us and help make win the first seat for Labour in Guildford and to hold and win seats in Aldershot.

If you would like to attend please register online at http://guildfordandaldershot.eventbrite.com/

Will Labour be able to contest all 5,000 council seats in the South?

Last night's stunning by election result in Barnsley demonstrates the depth of anger with the coalition parties. Stuart King wonders whether Labour will be able to field enough candidates in the South to take advantage of this in May's elections.

One month from today election nominations will close in local authorities up and down the country. For David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband, May’s elections represent their first significant and nationwide electoral test since last year’s general election.

It is clear that May’s elections represent a great opportunity for Labour. But party strategists also recognise that a threat exists alongside the opportunity. Labour must be seen to have done well in southern council seats; it cannot simply perform well in the north where its position is already solid. A strong performance that is restricted to our heartlands will allow our opponents to suggest that Labour has only been able to capitalise on anger that exists against the coalition within its urban and industrialised heartlands.

The challenge Labour faces, especially acute in the south, is the ability to stand candidates in as many of those seats up for election as is possible. Standing a full slate of candidates in the UK’s big cities and urban conurbations is often a fairly straight forward administrative process, albeit a time consuming one, with arms twisted to make up the slate with a number of “paper candidates”. In rural constituencies, often those with smaller memberships which, until recently had also been falling, a full slate has been an impossibility. Often party membership in a particular ward or electoral division has been insufficient to provide enough party members to nominate a Labour candidate.

Historically, many anti-Tory voters in the south have voted Liberal Democrat rather than Labour as the former has historically been best placed to defeat the Conservatives in their patch. As last night’s by election result in Barnsley demonstrated, voters are looking to punish both coalition parties, which means there is an even greater imperative on Labour to field the widest possible slate of candidates.

It will take 5,000 candidates to contest every single council seat in the three southern regions. No mean feat, especially if you look at the picture four years ago, when Labour last fought the seats up for election this May. Research and analysis undertaken exclusively by Southern Front has established the scale of Labour’s challenge in the south: in 2007, the voters in over 1,200 wards had no Labour candidate for whom to vote. More than two in five wards had no Labour candidate on the ballot and, in three councils there wasn’t a single Labour candidate fielded.

The findings are stark:

• Of the 140 councils with elections in 2011 (& 2007), 82 elect all of their councillors in one go (“all out” elections) and 58 elect one third of their councillors (election “by thirds”);

• In only 44 of the 140 councils was Labour able to stand a full slate of Labour candidates last time round;

• In 60 of the 140 councils (43%) Labour stood candidates in fewer than half of the wards electing candidates;

• Labour failed to stand any candidates at all in three local authority “all out” elections: Cotswold, Mid Devon and North Devon;

• Labour’s performance was better where the elections were by thirds, where in all but four of the councils Labour was able to stand in more than half of the contested seats;

• Conversely, Labour did much worse in those 82 authorities where all of the councillors were being elected, with it failing in 56 of the 82 to stand a slate of more than half the seats (68%);

• 2,981 electoral wards were contested in 2007, in 1,241 of which Labour did not field a candidate (42%);

• Across the south Labour stood 2,483 candidates – barely half of the total up for election of 4,787 (52%)

• Labour failed to fully contest a majority of the seats up for election, managing a full slate of candidates in 1,435 wards (48%);

• The outcome of the 2007 elections resulted in Labour failing to win a single seat in 64 southern councils; in a further 38, Labour groups of five or fewer were elected;

Smaller constituency parties will of course find it harder to stand a full slate of candidates where their activist base is so small. It is a more onerous and time consuming process collecting nomination signatures from members and supporters who live in large rural and sparsely populated constituencies.

However, CLPs should not allow themselves to use these difficulties to avoid even trying. It is inconceivable that the Labour parties in The Cotswolds and Mid and North Devon cannot find a single candidate despite memberships of 207, 118 and 98 respectively.

How is it that Bracknell CLP, where we have 167 members, managed to stand candidates in 34 of the 42 contests in 2007, but Saffron Walden, with 175 members, participated in only 2 of 44 contests? Similar examples exist throughout the south.

The appointment of senior shadow cabinet members to lead Labour’s campaigns in the three regions of the political south is important: it demonstrates Labour’s leadership recognises the need to do well in May’s local elections in the south. But to be able to perform well, the party must first give electors Labour candidates to vote for. One month from now we will learn whether that is to be the case or not.

Stuart King is editor of Southern Front.