Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire
The news from this amalgamation was always going to be bad for Labour: all the seats it holds or aspires to win are too small and surrounded by strongly Conservative areas.
Bedford is a case in point: it expands to the west of Kempston to take in two rural Conservative wards which will boost the current Tory majority; though it remains within sight for Labour.
Luton is another example. The town of Luton is about the right size for one and a half seats. Luton South becomes safer on these boundaries by expanding into North and losing the rural section of the unitary authority that sits within it at present. But that makes North, already undersized, even smaller - so it will now extend into Dunstable. There are Labour votes in Dunstable - the party could usually win the Northfields ward - but this is Conservative commuter-belt suburbia and while the Guardian seems to believe that Labour would have hung-on on these boundaries, I'm sceptical.
It doesn't stop there: Hemel Hempstead, already with a big Tory majority, becomes worse. Watford becomes worse. St Alban's and Welwyn Hatfield - about the same, but Labour's already faded in both big time.
To much excitement and delight on the left, Nadine Dorries' Mid Beds seat is abolished. There is no obvious successor seat for her right now: bits have gone all over the place: some to South West Beds, some to North Beds, some to Hitchin & Harpenden, some to Letchworth.
The only vaguely good news for Labour here is Stevenage, which hasn't taken as much Conservative surrounds as I expected it to, but the Tory majority continues to be in the region of 7,000 according to the Guardian's data.
Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk
It doesn't stop there: Hemel Hempstead, already with a big Tory majority, becomes worse. Watford becomes worse. St Alban's and Welwyn Hatfield - about the same, but Labour's already faded in both big time.
To much excitement and delight on the left, Nadine Dorries' Mid Beds seat is abolished. There is no obvious successor seat for her right now: bits have gone all over the place: some to South West Beds, some to North Beds, some to Hitchin & Harpenden, some to Letchworth.
The only vaguely good news for Labour here is Stevenage, which hasn't taken as much Conservative surrounds as I expected it to, but the Tory majority continues to be in the region of 7,000 according to the Guardian's data.
Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk
The Commission has, entirely unnecessarily, sucked Suffolk - a county big enough to stand alone - into its proposals for Norfolk and Cambridgeshire, seemingly because it disapproves of the town of Newmarket being in Suffolk. This is of little concern to Labour as West Suffolk was only closely-fought in its first ever contest in 1997. On these proposed boundaries, Bury St Edmunds would have been Labour in 1997 and possibly 2001. In compensation for the loss of Newmarket they've also bunged a bit of North Essex into Suffolk to balance it out - again, unnecessarily.
The Suffolk seats Labour will be interested in are Ipswich - entirely unchanged; and Waveney - entirely unchanged (for which Labour can feel somewhat aggrieved as the constituency could easily has lost a rural Tory-voting ward given its electoral size).
In Cambridgeshire, Cambridge is untouched but Peterborough is not. The constituency has been split in two. Despite the existing unified Peterborough having swung hugely away from Labour, this is not especially great news for Labour. It's become somewhat like Colchester used to be: two chunks where the party has urban bits in which it does relatively well, merged with overwhelmingly Tory bits further out.
As it is, Peterborough North is the far better Labour prospect of the two: but by far better we're still talking a big Tory majority to overcome. Peterborough South will be safely Tory.
The cross-county seat Cambridgeshire shares with Norfolk will be called Wisbech and Downham Market and, although both the Liberals and Labour have had surges here in the fairly recent past it will stay safely Tory.
The Suffolk seats Labour will be interested in are Ipswich - entirely unchanged; and Waveney - entirely unchanged (for which Labour can feel somewhat aggrieved as the constituency could easily has lost a rural Tory-voting ward given its electoral size).
In Cambridgeshire, Cambridge is untouched but Peterborough is not. The constituency has been split in two. Despite the existing unified Peterborough having swung hugely away from Labour, this is not especially great news for Labour. It's become somewhat like Colchester used to be: two chunks where the party has urban bits in which it does relatively well, merged with overwhelmingly Tory bits further out.
As it is, Peterborough North is the far better Labour prospect of the two: but by far better we're still talking a big Tory majority to overcome. Peterborough South will be safely Tory.
The cross-county seat Cambridgeshire shares with Norfolk will be called Wisbech and Downham Market and, although both the Liberals and Labour have had surges here in the fairly recent past it will stay safely Tory.
The news elsewhere in Norfolk isn't great for Labour. Although Norwich South remains unaltered, Norwich North is far too small on current boundaries and expands further into the Norfolk Broads, which of course isn't good news for the party. It suburban rather than rural territory that's been added, so if Labour can again win these areas it can win Norwich North. Likewise, Great Yarmouth stretches into North Norfolk, which will help entrench its Conservative majority.
Essex
This is a county where, if Labour were to win a general election by a wide margin the boundary changes would be helpful, but in terms of clawing back seats to win a bare majority they are not.
Harlow expands north into northern, rural Brentwood; it's not that huge a gain in population but it is enough to build the Conservative majority there to around 7,000.
As forecast, Witham is the abolished constituency: a change that makes Braintree more winnable, but again only in a landslide. Likewise we have a Harwich and Clacton seat not a million miles from the old Harwich seat but even on these somewhat better boundaries Labour is someway off the mark.
The better news is in the south of the county. Thurrock is unchanged and Basildon has been reunited in a somewhat better seat for Labour although a good performance will still be required to regain the seat.
Essex
This is a county where, if Labour were to win a general election by a wide margin the boundary changes would be helpful, but in terms of clawing back seats to win a bare majority they are not.
Harlow expands north into northern, rural Brentwood; it's not that huge a gain in population but it is enough to build the Conservative majority there to around 7,000.
As forecast, Witham is the abolished constituency: a change that makes Braintree more winnable, but again only in a landslide. Likewise we have a Harwich and Clacton seat not a million miles from the old Harwich seat but even on these somewhat better boundaries Labour is someway off the mark.
The better news is in the south of the county. Thurrock is unchanged and Basildon has been reunited in a somewhat better seat for Labour although a good performance will still be required to regain the seat.
First, some pedantic corrections:
ReplyDeleteThere is no Essex-Suffolk border crossing. I'm not sure where you got that idea from.
Harlow doesn't go into Brentwood. It gains a bit more of Epping Forest and some villages in Uttlesford, seemingly at random, but it doesn't reach Brentwood.
Whilst the nominals may or may not make Watford worse for us, in practical terms it's a big improvement for us versus the Lib Dems. They're strong in King's Langley, which comes out, whereas South Oxhey, which comes in, is a core Labour area.
They've done some re-warding, so I don't know if this has had an impact, but judging from the 2011 results the best ward for us in Dunstable is Manshead (which we won by 7 votes) rather than Northfields. Either way, I think our results in the town were moderately encouraging. It'll be a struggle, but it could have been much worse.
More generally:
In several constituencies you note that things have got worse, which is true, but I think you're overstating it. Great Yarmouth is bluer now, but expanding towards Stalham is much better for us than going into Broadland or South Norfolk - we've had good results there in the past and the Lib Dem vote is hopefully squeezable there.
Norwich North is very similar to the 2005 lines, which weren't disastrous for us. The outer bits are troublesome, but areas like Hellesdon are very similar to Catton Grove, just across the (very tightly drawn) Norwich City boundary. Indeed, this lack of meaningful distinction between the two areas is one reason the unitary proposal was thrown out by the courts.
The Newmarket & Ely seat actually has a lot going for it in terms of internal connections and transport links. It will be controversial, but personally I think we should support it, but take the opportunity to point out the weirdness of the proposed lines for West Suffolk. We can't get three marginal seats out of Suffolk, but two marginal seats and a long shot less long than Bury St Edmunds is quite possible.
In Essex, both Harwich and Braintree are literally the best we could do - including spidery connections from Colchester along the entire Tendring coast (I got bored and tested this.) Certainly they aren't easy gains, but that reflects our lack of concentrated support rather than the BCE producing an unfavourable map.
On the other hand, Harlow is just appalling and we need to make certain that at consultation it is pointed out what a ridiculous seat they've proposed there. Improvements are also possible in Basildon - in particular Vange should be part of the seat and Pitsea can make a claim too, although numbers are an issue.
I'd also note that it's unlikely these proposals will all make it out of the consultation alive. The Newmarket seat will be controversial, the proposed Billericay & Great Dunmow is an illogical monstrosity and crossing the Hertfordshire-Bedfordshire border three times is just plain unnecessary. Hopefully the knock-on changes that fixing these produce will allow improvements in the three areas we really got screwed - Peterborough, Harlow and (to a much lesser extent) Luton.
I choose to look at the bright side. There are a lot of great restaurants in Beccles Suffolk, and I'll continue to enjoy them as much as I can.
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