Boundary Review: Hampshire

The South East’s largest county, with 1.3m voters, loses a seat. The seat that disappears is basically the newly created Meon Valley constituency in the south east of Hampshire: one less Tory to worry about.

The really interesting change is Portsmouth, which is proposed to change from Portsmouth North and South to Portsmouth East and West. Portsmouth West in particular looks very promising for Labour: with Cosham, Paulsgrove, Hilsea and Nelson. Most if not all of these areas have had Labour representation at some time. Portsmouth East is proposed to take in the rest of Portsmouth North and South and Purbrook ward from Havant (62% Tory). But given the calamities under the coalition, this seat could be winnable for Labour.

Southampton, Labour’s strongest presence in Hampshire, needs to change little. John Denham’s marginal seat of Southampton Itchen, with 74,500 electors, has no need to change boundaries, but will likely see its marginal status change to a safe seat next time. Southampton Itchen, the safer seat, with 71,000 electors, falls foul of the 5% tolerance and will have to take in a ward from a neighbouring area, e.g. Swaythling, which risks diluting Alan Whitehead’s majority, although Southampton Labour Party is strong, having picked up 4 council seats in 2011.

Basingstoke (75,740), where Labour slipped from 2nd to 3rd in 2010, looks set to keep its existing boundaries. It has been a Tory seat since 1922 and is unlikely to change at the next election, although it came close in both 1997 and 2001 – under its current boundaries it would have returned a Labour MP in those years. With Lib Dem council seats lost or vulnerable to Labour, the Libs are likely to be back where they belong in third place next time.

Aldershot (71,908), which had a Tory majority of nearly 6,000 in 2010, is set to take in Lib Dem Yateley North and Yateley East. This will reduce the Tories’ majority as the Libs came 2nd in Aldershot in 2010, but still it to remain above 4,000. While Labour have a good team in Aldershot which is capable of gaining council seats, they finished a distant 3rd in 2010 (10,000 votes behind the Lib Dems), and unless the Lib Dem vote spectacularly collapses, the electorate is effectively presented with a coalition one-party state.

This is as good as it gets for Labour in Hampshire. Eastleigh remains close to the optimal total for a seat and is unlikely to change size but may well change hands – to the Tories. The Lib Dems are strong in this town but with the Tories taking Romsey, Winchester, Guildford and Newbury, it’s only a matter of time before Eastleigh falls as well.

Fareham takes in part of Meon Valley: Whiteley and Wickham wards in Winchester City Council, both Lib Dem marginal wards. But that’s unlikely to dent the Tories’ thumping 17,000 majority. There is an outside chance Labour could snatch second place, giving electors a real choice.

Gosport, of Duck House fame, takes in the Titchfield ward of Fareham. I still can’t figure out how the duck the Tories gained a county council seat off Labour in 2009, there is a Labour presence as the county result was close, and the demographics of much of Gosport are working class voters whose inclination up until 2005 was to vote Labour. But Titchfield is true blue with a Tory receiving nearly 60% of the vote in 2010, and Fareham’s majority of 14,500 won’t be under threat, although again Labour could snatch second place.

Hampshire East is set to take in nearly 24,000 voters from Meon Valley, with the Tories polling 56% in both seats and Labour getting less than 10% in both. If the 2011 elections are anything to go by, with the Tories wiping out the Lib Dems in Alton, if anything they may increase their dominance. The less said, the better.

North East Hampshire is set to take in Alton from East Hampshire and the Alresfords from Winchester. The Tories got 60% of the vote last time (majority of nearly 20,000) and Labour polled less than 10%. It’s not likely to change significantly next time.

North West Hampshire also had the Tories on 60% with a majority of nearly 20,000. It looks like it will take in four very Tory wards from North East Hants (Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council) where the Tories regularly poll over 70% of the vote (85% in Upton Grey). This could well be one of the top ten safest Tory seats in the country.

Havant loses Purbrook but gains Hart Plain from Meon Valley. The Tories won’t lose any sleep. Similarly New Forest East and West swap wards with other Tory areas, but these changes are unlikely to change the overall picture of the Tories on over 50% and Labour on less than 10%. And Romsey is likely to remain Tory as well.

The dilemma for Labour in Hampshire is how best to concentrate resources to win the most council seats and take back parliamentary seats in the next General Election, with the only real opportunity for this happening being in Portsmouth. Expect similar initiatives from Region as for 2010 with constituency twinning meaning most of Hampshire being asked to pitch in for Portsmouth, and the Northernmost constituencies being “twinned” with the Reading seats.

Andy McCormick is Chair of Basingstoke CLP