Although Gloucestershire and Wiltshire will probably be paired in the boundary review - something that will probably see the loss of a Liberal Democrat seat in Thornbury & Yate (though the expanded Filton & Bradley Stoke seat may well flip back; the expanded North Wiltshire is probably going to be beyond them), there is not a huge amount of change required to most of the seats in this area.
In Bristol, just one ward needs to be transferred to Bristol East from Bristol North West for the whole city to retain its four seats in tact.
Elsewhere in Gloucestershire, Forest of Dean will need to be expanded slightly - and the least uncomfortable change would be to take a couple of wards from Gloucester, which in turn could take back the one ward it currently donates to Tewksbury. Cheltenham and Tewksbury do not otherwise need any change, while The Cotswolds will need one extra ward, presumably from Stroud. Kingswood needs slight expansion, but that should not alter its status as a Labour seat in all but the very weakest years (like 2010).
Likewise, in Wiltshire, Swindon North is the right size, while all the remaining seats: Devizes, Chippenham, Salisbury and what used to be Westbury are all broadly unscathed. But the one bit of bad news for Labour is in South Swindon, which is too small to survive in tact. It will need to take a ward from one of the surrounding seats - probably Devizes - which could double its geographic size and make the task of recently selected candidate and former MP, Anne Snelgrove, that much harder.
AMENDMENT: It has been pointed out to us that South Swindon on its current boundaries is within the BCE's quota for the new sized constituencies, which means it is incorrect to state that South Swindon is "too small to survive intact". It remains possible that South Swindon's boundaries might change as a consequence of changes required elsewhere in the Glos/Wilts review area. The BCE are due to publish their recommendations on 13 September
Your analysis of the Gloucester situationtakes no account of the fact that there is only one crossing point across the river and it is in Westgate ward which contains the City centre. This is a demonstration of the stupidity of the numbers game that is being played here. First those Foresters undermine our walls and now the Royalists will had over the City to them. Not without a fight!
ReplyDelete"But the one bit of bad news for Labour is in South Swindon, which is too small to survive in tact."
ReplyDeleteI see a 73,449 figure for South Swindon which is enough to survive as it is.
"In Bristol, just one ward needs to be transferred to Bristol East from Bristol North West for the whole city to retain its four seats in tact."
I think they will have to move it from Bristol West